Optimistic Musk sees 10,000 Teslas per year in Germany. Let’s look a little closer

Musk in Germany - Picture courtesy siliconbeat.com

Beginning in 2015, Tesla wants to “sell some 10,000 cars per year” in Germany, Elon Musk told Germany’s Welt. And they will be powered by sunlight. “By end of March 2014, half of Germany will be covered by Superchargers,” Musk promised. “By the end of 2014, the whole country will be covered. That’s 40 to 50 stations.”

The stations will be powered by solar panels. “A Tesla driver should need no more than sunlight,” Musk told the paper. He is a very optimistic man.

Germany is a 3 million unit car market, give or take a few. 10,000 Teslas would mean a market share of 0.3 percent. To assist Tesla in its projections, here some data on the German car market.

Cars on the road, Germany
Gasoline 30,206,472 69.6%
Diesel 12,578,950 28.96%
LPG 494,777 1.14%
CNG 76,284 0.18%
Hybrid 64,995 0.15%
Electric 7,114 0.02%
Other 2,532 0.01%
Total 43,431,124 100.00%
As of 1/1/2013, Source:KBA

As of 1/1/2013, there was a total of 1,114 electric cars on Germany’s roads. That is 0.02 percent of 43.5 million.

 

Sales 2012, Germany
Gasoline 1,555,241 50.5%
Diesel 1,486,119 48.2%
LPG 11,465 0.4%
CNG 5,215 0.2%
Hybrid 21,438 0.7%
Electric 2,956 0.1%
Other 70 0.0%
Total 3,082,504 100.0%
As of 1/1/2013, Source:KBA

Om 2012, a total of 2,956 new electric cars were sold in Germany, taking a market share of 0.1 percent. Hybrids had a 0.7 percent share. Cars powered with gas (the compressed kind) are nearly as (un-)popular as hybrids with a total share of 0.54 percent.

In September, the share of all electric cars of the German market stood at 0.2 percent, Germany’s Kraftfahrtbundesamt said. As you can see, the market for electric cars grows by leaps and bounds in Germany. Whether it grows fast enough to accommodate 10,000 Teslas in 2015 is another question.

As for the picture: Let’s see how the Teslas love the autobahn when driven at German autobahn speeds.