World’s largest automakers 2013, Daily Kanban prediction: #1 Toyota, #2 GM, #3 VW

Toyota lobby - Picture courtesy Bertel Schmitt

Unless a disaster happens, the year 2013 will end unchanged as far as the world’s largest automakers are concerned.  Meaning: #1 Toyota, #2 GM, #3 VW.

World’s largest automakers
Jan-Sept 2013, full year forecast
9M’13 9M’12 YoY Proj ’13
Toyota 7,536,260 7,681,891 -1.9% 10,048,000
GM 7,250,848 6,942,917 4.4% 9,668,000
Volkswagen 7,030,000 6,710,000 4.8% 9,373,000
Production: Company data.  Forecast: Daily Kanban
estimate

Today, Toyota supplied its global sales and production numbers for September and year to date. GM and Volkswagen already published their numbers earlier in the month. For this tally, we use production, not sales, simply because OICA uses production numbers when declaring the world’s largest automaker. The scoreboard has Toyota with a slight decrease. GM and VW booked a moderate increase. As forecasted elsewhere earlier in the year, the field narrowed considerably, however, our crude, but time-tested projection sees the three contestants separated by more than 200,000 units when the year ends. Which gives us the confidence to call a winner three months ahead. (I predicted this outcome elsewhere in May 2013.)

Toyota could end the calendar year a hair below 10 million, or a hair above. The 10 million barrier has been broken by Toyota in 2012 already, and with no fanfare at all.  According to OICA, Toyota made 10.1 million units in 2012 worldwide. In May 2013, Toyota forecasted sales of 10.1 million for the current fiscal year which ends on March 2014.  TMC’s pace increased a bit the month, and I am confident that the target will be met.