US Car Sales On Fire… But Who Is Doing The Buying?

Bought... but not paid-for.

Bought… but not paid-for.

With America’s Seasonally Adjusted Annual Selling Rate (SAAR) creeping  above 16 million units in November, driving the market to new post-bailout highs, the usual cheerleaders are out in force to celebrate the strength of the US auto sales. But in the rush to spread the good news, few are looking at the troubling data underlying these frothy sales numbers. In the US, automakers count sales upon delivery to dealers rather than consumers. When times get tough and demand shrinks, OEMs often force dealers to take on more inventory in order to temporarily improve sales numbers. We saw both GM and Chrysler dump huge amounts of inventory on dealers in the leadup to their 2008 collapses, and we’ve reported on a similar dynamic at play in the current European downturn.

We won’t know the extent to which dealers are stacking up inventory until we see a full December 1 report from Automotive News, but initial signs are not promising. Already in October, Wards Auto saw an uncomfortable build-up in inventories across the industry that has apparently only grown among the worst offenders. At the time Wards predicted that “the excess will be alleviated in November, when most of the lost sales are recouped,” but although pricing discipline has remained high the inventories are continuing to build as we head into December.

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Iran Auto industry Conference: France Goes Back Alone?

China goes where others fear to tread...

China goes where others fear to tread…

In the leadup to last weekend’s Auto Industry International Conference in Tehran, organizers boasted that nearly every nation would be represented, including “France, Japan, Germany, Italy, Turkey, Britain, China, India, Czech Republic, South Korea, Spain, Egypt, Switzerland and Denmark.” In the extended [sic] of one recent official press release, “US automakers are better not to miss the opportunity.”

But miss it they apparently have, along with all the non-French global majors.

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The Auto Bailout As Redistribution Of Wealth

So we let them pay back the loans and post losses on equity... then that cash is just sitting there...

So we let them pay back the loans and post losses on equity… then that cash is just sitting there…

At the risk of insulting the considerable intelligence of The Daily Kanban‘s readership by overstating the obvious, the bailout of General Motors was fait accompli a number of years ago, and the apparent linear nature of time makes debate over whether the bailout was “worth it” largely academic at this point. If nothing else, the political outcome of the bailout speaks for itself: President Obama argued for extending federal aid to GM in both of his presidential campaigns, and he won both times.

Unfortunately, the crude national partisan discourse has not done much to help taxpayers truly appreciate the intricacies of the bailout policy itself, its context and alternatives. Like other major policy decisions made in times of great fear, long-term and structural concerns about the policy were dismissed in the rush to do something. Holding the rhetorical high ground, “it could have been worse,” required only that politicians play to their most reliably effective emotion: fear. Everything else could be obscured through sheer complexity. Only now, when there is nothing to be gained from examining the auto bailout other than an opportunity not to repeat history, is the reality of the auto bailout starting to reveal itself in easier-to-understand forms.

With the official Treasury loss on GM’s shares certain to be “close enough for government work” to $10 billion, GM faces the unique opportunity in American automotive history of going to market with a clear unmet financial obligation to the taxpaying public. And yet, GM does have enough cash to now be the likely target of “activist investors” according to multiple news wire reports. One source of these concerns: auto task force member Harry J. Wilson:

The exit makes GM a possible target for activist investors, who may push the company to pay out some of its $26.8 billion in cash through a dividend or stock buyback, said Harry J. Wilson, a member of the U.S. auto task force that helped rebuild the automaker in a 2009 bankruptcy.

“Any company that isn’t efficient about capital allocation is a target for activists,” said Wilson, who is now a restructuring adviser at Maeva Group LLC in Westchester, N.Y. “GM has a huge cash hoard and they are generating lots more cash each year, so they need to be thoughtful about that.”

There you have it: a guy who helped pump GM with cash and structured the deal so the taxpayer loss showed up as equity loss rather than an unpaid loan, is now in the private sector selling the company as cash pile to be raided. Not that GM needs new leadership, or a new strategy to better allocate its generous helping of tax money, but that the public’s loss on GM is a shining opportunity for any billionaire or hedge fund that wants to punk GM for its lunch money. That the task force he served on, ostensibly operating in the name of the public good, gave GM more of the public’s cash than it needed and that he is now available for consultation on how YOU can pocket some of it.

And why not? After all, as GM’s PR boss Selim Bingol recently observed in a Politico piece on GM’s ramped-up lobbying effort

“I think people in general have accepted that the rescue of the company and the industry is the right thing to do. We find ourselves now being able to be a little more forward-looking. I think we are in a position to really partner with policymakers in Washington.”

If Mr Wilson does well enough promoting GM’s cash pile to Wall Street raiders, I can imagine a number of policymakers would be anxious to “really partner” with GM going forward.

Why GM Isn’t Trying To Sell The Chevy SS (And Why It Matters)

Currency is only part of the problem...

Currency is only part of the problem…

When is a flop not a flop? When it was never meant to be a success in the first place. A post at TTAC grapples with this reality, wondering why GM seems to have no interest in promoting its rear-drive V8-powered NASCAR-for-the-road Chevrolet SS. After describing the car’s weak sales and lack of marketing, the author notes:

I’d love to have the chance to have a candid, off-the-record conversation with somebody, hell, anybody at GM about what the thought process was behind the SS. Are they just trying to spread out the Commodore R&D budget? Is this some empty suit’s crusade? Why has there been NO advertising push behind this car? Are they so afraid to fail on a grand scale that they’ve decided to do the automotive equivalent of a direct-to-video release?

Only an automotive enthusiast could look at the SS and wonder why GM isn’t doing more to back it. From the pistonhead perspective, cars like the SS are the crowning achievement of an auto industry which builds hundreds of thousands of bland commuter-mobiles simply to finance the fun cars. After all, in the mind of plenty of auto enthusiasts, the best criteria for buying a new commuter car is the relative merit of a brand’s halo car.

Of course, exactly the opposite is true: only relentlessly rational, scale-based models can hope to survive in the brutally competitive global car industry, and every unique, hi-po, fanboy-baiting model like the SS is a gigantic risk. In fact, few cars illustrate the danger of emotionalism and sentimentality in the car business quite like Chevy’s big, Aussie-derived sports sedan.

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Blankenship Departure Underlines Tesla Retail Issues

Going down with the Blankenship?

Going down with the Blankenship?

For all the praise it receives for “innovating beyond internal combustion,” there’s nothing especially unique or disruptive about Tesla’s core technology.  On the other hand its approach to automotive retail, forgoing dealerships for direct sales, is both unique and potentially very disruptive. Especially at a time when some of the biggest OEMs in the US market are opening  online sales channels that could someday allow online-only retailers to bypass the dealer franchise system. With the man behind Apple Store and The Gap retail successes leading Tesla’s direct-sales strategy, car dealers have had good reason to worry that the future might be passing them by.

Now with Tesla under NHTSA investigation for what is clearly an anomalous incidence of fires and effectively banned from retailing in one of its largest potential markets, Tesla’s retail guru has suddenly and quietly retired. As much as the fires themselves, this is another clear sign of Tesla’s growing pains… and possibly the most concerning.

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Chart: Volkswagen Hits The Wall Again In The US Market

Not again...

Not again…

When Volkswagen announced that it would attempt to triple its US sales between 2009 and 2018, my fellow Daily Kanban editor Bertel Schmitt greeted the announcement with a picture of flying pigs. Long a dominant force in Europe and Asia, Volkswagen has long struggled in the profitable US market, frustrating the firm’s efforts to become the king of the global auto game. But with a new line of lower-cost sedans and the firm’s first US plant since the Westmoreland disaster, VW put some real heft behind its latest assault on the most lucrative (if no longer the largest) market for cars.

And as of the end of last year, it almost seemed like the goal was within reach; with 438,133 US VW-brand sales in 2012, Stefan Jacoby’s long-ago 2013 goal of 400k-450k sales and a profit was as good as achieved. But with 2013 winding to a close with the auto market running hot on strong credit markets, VW’s goal seems to have suddenly evaporated. With 342,000 units sold through October, VW would need back-to-back record months to even crack 400,000 units.

Automotive News [sub] reports that, whith a flat spot in VW’s product cadence, dealers are getting angry. And sure enough, a look at VW’s core model sales reveals that the brand truly is on the “roller coaster” one dealer describes.

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France: GM Officials Meeting With Iran

 

Iran so far away...

Iran so far away…

GM’s alliance with PSA Peugeot-Citroen is one of the bigger mysteries of recent automotive history, fusing two badly underperforming operations tied to a market that’s desperate for consolidation. And, sure enough, as time has passed the scope of the alliance has been reduced, GM’s investment has been written down, and even core platform-sharing aspects of the alliance are being left behind. Without a strong justification in the first place, the GM-PSA alliance has now drifted into pure incomprehensibility, leaving analysts scratching their heads and wondering what comes next.

In the absence of even a basic narrative with which to make sense of the GM-PSA dealings, analysis of the situation from France has turned towards anger at GM. Though it has gone totally uncovered in the US media (at least as far as I can tell), French journalists are now alleging that GM’s PSA maneuvers were all about Iran. The allegation, if true, is stunning: that GM’s alliance with PSA was an attempt to wedge the French automaker out of a market it has long dominated, and that with relations thawing between the US and Iran, GM officials have been meeting counterpoints at Iran Khodro to prepare for GM’s re-entry into that market.

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Who Will Kill The Autonomous Car?

In the future we can stop murders before they begin...

In the future we can stop murders before they begin…

 

I’ve argued in previous pieces that autonomous cars are the disruptive technology that will set the industry on its head, but the strongest evidence of the transformative power of self-driving vehicles comes from the industry’s response to the technology. As Paul Godsmark points out in one of his many thoughtful blog posts on the topic, automakers are doing everything they can to keep the driver in the picture. And not because humans are particularly good drivers, but because human desires beyond mere transportation are the source of much of the auto indsutry’s profits. Good luck getting robot chauffeurs to upgrade to sport suspension or a more powerful engine. [ There is more … ]

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