World’s largest automakers 2014: Better luck next year

Top3_Picture courtesy Bertel Schmitt

Now that Toyota reported its 9 month global production and sales numbers, we can update our projections of who will be the world’s largest automaker when 2014 comes to an end. The new numbers don’t differ much from our back-of-the-envelope estimate from a week ago,

World’s Largest Automakers
9 Month 2014
Jan-Sep 2014 Jan-Sep 2013 YoY 2014 proj.
Toyota 7,734,667 7,536,260 2.6% 10,313,000
Volkswagen 7,400,000 7,030,000 5.9% 10,092,000
GM 7,371,743 7,250,764 1.7% 9,829,000
Source: Company data. GM, VW: Deliveries. Toyota: Production. Blue: Estimate
Volkswagen data ex MAN and Scania. Included in estimate

We reiterate our July prediction that this year’s ranking will remain unchanged from 2013, with Toyota taking the top spot, followed by Volkswagen, and GM in place three. We expect all to be separated by a comfortable margin of more than 100,000 units.

We also reiterate that, barring major catastrophes, Volkswagen stands a realistic chance of becoming the world’s largest automaker in 2015 – if the Wolfsburg automaker maintains its current trajectory, and if Toyota doesn’t develop second thoughts about its current anti-expansionist policy.  The world car market currently grows by a little less than three percent. Volkswagen currently outperforms the market 2:1. GM underperforms, despite a red-hot home market. Toyota doggedly maintains the targeted equilibrium.

Usual disclaimer: P.S.: Sticking with OICA rules, we use production as the yardstick, not “sales.” Toyota reports both production and sales. Volkswagen and GM report “deliveries” to wholesale, numbers that should resemble production much more than actual sales to end users. Even, and especially those can be and are heavily manipulated.















































outperforms the m,arket, GM underperforms, Toyota doggedly maintains the equilibrium.