Grade The Analysts: Brian Johnson wins March

Who is the most prescient analyst on the auto beat? Who can provide real actionable analysis, as opposed to blatant stock pumping? This is what Grade the Analysts tries to find out. Each month, we compare analyst predictions to the actual results. This month, it is Brian Johnson, veteran high-precision analyst at Barclays, who called March sales better than his peers.

One month does not a sharp analyst make. Consistency is king. Three months into the year, Grade the Analysts once more brings out who you should really rely on: Listen to Joseph Spak, Brian Johnson, Jessica Caldwell, or Erin Sunde.

The ranking is created by comparing analyst predictions collected and supplied by Bloomberg with sales data of  GM, Ford, and FCA, as compiled by Motorintelligence

The algorithm measures how much the forecasts deviate from the actuals of the Detroit 3, and the SAAR number. A few analysts supply only incomplete (“NA”) data. They get punished with a 100% deviation from the actual for the missing data point.

Meanwhile, General Motors has announced that it will stop providing monthly sales data, and will go to quarterly releases instead. Other OEMs are expected to follow. We will see how thiosq affects this series.