German BEVs: Beware of the Teslas of March

Attack when and where the competition is weak: German OEMs fight with mounting supply chain problems, and Tesla continues its onslaught on the burgeoning German BEV market.  January-March, Tesla was only a few percentage points separated from dethroning Volkswagen Group. Like other EU OEMs, Volkswagen suffers from a shortage of chips, raw materials, Ukraine-made wire harnesses, and more. To make matters worse, supplies of components suffer since the freight train connection with China has become a casualty of the war in the Ukraine.

In the month of March, Tesla out-delivered everybody in Germany, mainly because Volkswagen Groups formerly strong position collapsed. Tesla’s factory in Grünheide near Berlin had no bearing on the March results, it opened only late in the month, and the “delivered” cars were mostly a photo-op. This can change in the coming months, or it will not. Tesla’s factory would be severely impacted if its gas is turned off.  Voices demanding an embargo on Russian gas are becoming louder and louder.  1/3 of Germany’s gas is coming from Russia. In case of a gas shortage, private households would receive priority. 60 percent of the Grünheide factory’s energy depend on gas.  However, other OEMs would be likewise hit.