We briefly interrupt our holiday-hiatus to bring you the latest rankings of World’s Largest Automakers (sans Volkswagen).
As predicted, the month of November brought no drastic changes on our leaderboard, nor will December. World’s Largest Automakers will enter the new year slightly below last year’s level. In 2025, the erosion is likely to continue as new OEMs nibble on market shares and as demographic changes take their toll.
Both Toyota Group (up from -4.4% year-to-date in October to -3.6% in November) and Hyundai Group (up from -1.6% year-to-date in October to -1.3% in November) improved their showings ever so slightly. AWOL Volkswagen Group reports only quarterly, we’ll have to wait another month to see how they are doing. But how will the much-discussed Honda/Nissan/Mitsu merger affect next year’s rankings?
It will not. If the merger goes through, which is anything but certain, it won’t go into effect until summer 2026. In the media, the resulting motor-moloch is already feted as world’s 3rd largest automaker. They could become the 2nd largest. At current trajectories, global HNM sales would be slightly below currently 2nd placed Volkswagen, but two years can change a lot, and trajectories are prone to bends. However, a merger between OEMs as culturally different as Nissan and Honda won’t be without frictions. Factories will need to be closed, managers and engineers fired to make the deal work. Nissan hasn’t quite recovered from being ruled by a strict gaijin who forced multiculturism and -gasp- synergies down their throat, and they tried to sabotage most attempts. How will Nissan work with a Honda that operates a bit like a cult, and where the board works out of a large open-plan office? And Mitsubishi? They have seen so many changing parents and endured so much abuse, they will probably quietly tag along.
The black horse in the race is Hyundai Group. The so far 3rd-ranked South Korean automaker is busy building capacity all over the world, from a 300,000 unit in Bryan County, GA, to a new EV factory in Ulsan, South Korea, a new EV assembly plant in Chennai, India, and more. In the course of 2025, Hyundai Group could add capacity of close to 1 million units, with more to come on-line in 2026. At the same time, so far 2nd-ranked Volkswagen Group plans to reduce capacity.
2026 promises to become an interesting year with finally a tight race between world’s largest OEMs.
Caveat: All sales data as reported by the respective automaker. Note that “sales” can be an elastic term, some OEMs report hard registrations, some “sales to wholesale,” which can mean cars placed on dealer lots, or transferred to the OEM’s sales organization. Methods may differ from region to region. Some report “deliveries,” which can be nothing more than cars moved out of the factory door.
