So You Want To Be A Mobility Company?

Time to get out of the lab…



Over the last decade or so, it has become increasingly fashionable for automakers to explore new forms of mobility outside of the traditional automotive paradigm. Initially much of this was the industry’s usual blue-sky “concept car” dreaming, but as Google’s pushes autonomous cars towards reality and the auto industry comes to term with the digital revolution, automakers are taking the idea of rebranding as “mobility companies” more and more seriously. But, as with most high-concept “pivots” that sound good on paper, there are real questions about how exactly a car company is supposed to expand into broader areas of mobility.

The big issues around autonomous cars –be they technological, regulatory or economic– will take some time to hash out, and it could take many product cycles before new mobility markets emerge on any kind of broad scale. But in the meantime, diversifying from automobiles to other forms of mobility may provide surprising new opportunities.

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Why CES Scares Auto Writers

 

So now, less than five years later, you can go up on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark—that place where the wave finally broke and rolled back.” ~Hunter S Thompson

Yes, Virginia, CES is the Most Important Auto Show. Want to know why? Because it isn’t a car show at all. I know, I know…. this is confusing stuff. Hang out for a minute though, and all will be explained.

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GM Korea: The Twilight Empire

I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: “Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
‘My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!’
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away ~Shelley, “Ozymandias”

Ed note: Jordan Terry of Stone Street Advisors recently asked me on Twitter what I thought of the “bad” situation at GM Korea, noting that it seemed “underreported.” Having written about the subject in the past at TTAC, that was hardly a surprise: not much hard reporting comes out of GM’s “International Operations” black box. That said, there is a broader context here that is underreported, and which I will try to lay out here…

General Motors Korea, formerly GM-Daewoo, has been a key design, engineering and export hub for GM’s global empire since the early 2000s. Specializing in smaller cars, developed and produced at lower price points than GM’s European Opel division, GM Korea was the main conduit for many of GM’s developing-market efforts, as well as the “home room” for many global products. For the perennially small-car- and cost-challenged GM, Korea was the key to offering affordable small cars for export to developed markets like the US and Europe in complete form, as well as in the form of CKD kits for developing market operations like GM Uzbekistan and GM Egypt.

But GM Korea’s long-term problems with union unrest, currency volatility and domestic market sales declines are catching up to it, creating a financial crisis just as it becomes increasingly expendable to the GM Mothership. GM’s deep alliance with China’s SAIC Motors has made GM Korea all but irrelevant to its strategy, and as The General plots its increasingly China-centric future it’s clear that Korea is losing out. With the loss of key export markets and future development work, GM’s once-crucial Korean empire is fading into obscurity and financial woes.

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Tesla’s Tough Road Ahead

The industry zeroes in on the upstart Tesla.

The industry zeroes in on the upstart Tesla.

The Tesla bears are on the march, tearing away at the startup EV maker’s still-sky-high valuation, but not because low oil prices are killing off EVs. Quite the opposite, in fact. As I explained in last week’s Bloomberg View column, falling oil prices will not kill off alt-energy drivetrains for a wide number of reasons, most importantly because it’s one of the few ways to stand out in a sea of commodified internal-combustion engine-powered cars. Though automakers could easily plan a low-efficiency product cycle in response to low oil prices, they are keeping the technological arms race going. And that is Tesla’s real challenge: not a decline in EV interest, but strong competition from established players with more experience building vehicles at scale. [ There is more … ]

Black Friday Deals Behind The Chrysler 200’s Hot Sales

On closer inspection...

On closer inspection…

After years of having to put a brave face on what everyone knew was just an updated Sebring, Chrysler’s 2015 200 was supposed to be the brand’s bold return to the midsized segment. Reviewers gave mixed-to-positive reviews, all concluding that the new 200 is a definite step up from the old model. Sales were up over 150% Year-Over-Year in November… so has Fiat’s CUSW platform made Chrysler competitive in the hotly-contested midsized sedan segment?

As the numbers above indicate, probably not. According to national sales data from TrueCar’s website, only the cheapest model of the new 200 (LX FWD) is selling close to MSRP ($68 above, actually). Every other trim of the new 200 is selling at deep discounts, despite having launched just this year. In fact, consumers spent less on average for the second level (Limited FWD) than the base trim, and average discounts for the top trim reach nearly $4,000. Though it’s impossible to know what the average of these averages is without knowing the sales mix, the fact that the typically loss-leading lowest trim is the only one maintaining any pricing discipline, its clear that this brand-new car is buying market share in hopes of appearing successful. Given that Edmunds says the Chrysler brand as a whole averaged a 20% discount in October, it’s clear that FCA’s attempt to transform Chrysler into a mass-market offering is not going to be a gimme.

Driving Impressions: Toyota Mirai

Toyota Mirai Press Briefing Tokyo - 14 - Picture Bertel Schmitt -670

While Herr Schmitto-san was learning about Toyota’s new Mirai fuel cell vehicle (FCV) by not driving it in Japan, I was busy learning about Mirai by driving it in sunny Southern California. The Los Angeles area is already ground zero for hydrogen-powered cars in the US, thanks to major investments by the state government and small-scale FCV deployment by Honda, Hyundai and BMW. Soon it will be the first market for Mirai, the first FCV to be offered for sale to consumers and Toyota’s first step into a long-awaited hydrogen future. Driving the Mirai past competitor FCVs and refueling at a station that pumps hydrogen extracted from local sewage, it becomes clear that the first steps towards Toyota’s vision of a “hydrogen society” have already been made in sun-soaked Orange County.

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Toyota’s Mirai Brings Hydrogen Technology Back Into Focus

The fuel of the future finally has a future.

The fuel of the future finally has a future.

For more than 30 years, a joke has circulated in automotive circles that hydrogen fuel cells are the future of the car… and always will be. Nearly every automaker has flirted with the technology at some point since the 1980s, either in their concept cars, demonstrator fleets or semi-secretive tests without ever coming close to actually offering a hydrogen-powered car to consumers.
That all changed this week, when the 800 pound gorilla of the auto industry, Toyota, released the first fuel cell vehicle (FCV) available for sale to consumers. Though this pioneering vehicle faces undeniable challenges, mainly a nascent hydrogen refueling infrastructure that is initially limiting Toyota’s FCV effort to targeted markets, there can be no doubt but that the Japanese automaker is fully committed to aggressively pursuing fuel cell technology. The proof is in the very name of the new car: Mirai, Japanese for The Future.

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Who’s Afraid Of Direct Sales?

This is how you don't change a business... (courtesy: Opensecrets.org)

This is how you don’t change a business… (courtesy: Opensecrets.org)

In my most recent post at Bloomberg View, I draw a connection between Michigan’s new law blocking Tesla’s direct-sales model and the interests of the automakers based there. General Motors has taken the lead among Michigan’s automakers in opposing Tesla’s state-by-state battle for direct sales, publicly pushing Governors to protect the franchise system in Ohio and now in Michigan. In both cases, GM positioned itself as defender of “an even playing field” in the car business rather than arguing against direct sales or defending the franchise model. As I point out in the column, this is nothing short of absurd: GM’s extraordinary bailout make it the auto industry’s least-qualified advocate for fair play. But it’s also strangely telling: GM may not want Tesla to sell directly to consumers in states where it has a franchise dealer network, but it is hardly settled on the issue of direct sales themselves.

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