Grade the Analysts: Chesbrough wins February, Sunde tops leaderboard

Which analyst should you follow to get an early read on monthly car sales? Follow this monthly series, and you shall know.

For February, Charlie Chesbrough of Cox Automotive shot a bull’s eye by coming within 4.8% of the truth. Sadly, he started calling the numbers only this February, and the missing January sorely degrades his chances to become the 2018 overall points champion. Like in any race, you’ve got to be in it to win it.

Jan-Feb, Erin Sunde of WardsAuto leads, followed closely by Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.

The ranking is created by comparing analyst predictions collected and supplied by Bloomberg with sales data of  GM, Ford, and FCA, as compiled by Motorintelligence

The algorithm measures how much the forecasts deviate from the actuals of the Detroit 3, and the SAAR number. A few analysts supply only incomplete (“NA”) data. They get punished with a 100% deviation from the actual for the missing data point.